Marin Real Estate Forecast- Spring 2010

Posted on December 23, 2009 by Ginger Wilcox

Is the picture rosy for Marin real estate next year?  Nationally, economists seem to think so.  Inventory nationwide is much lower than last year at this time. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors, notes:

  • “After a possible activity decline this winter, we expect another surge in spring and early summer.”
  • “There is still a pent-up demand from buyers who can benefit from the tax credits being offered on a federal level.”
  • “Mortgage rates last month were the third lowest on record dating back to 1971.”

Yun’s predictions are appropriate for the lower tier of the Marin market, but are unlikely to hold true in the high end luxury real estate market. In the last few months, the lower end market in Marin County has seen a tremendous comeback.  The tax credits and mortgage rates have given confidence to buyers in the lower end but we have not seen a sizzling comeback is the high end luxury market in Marin County.

Housing inventory is at extremely low levels in Marin right now.  In 2009, the months of home inventory dropped from a high of 7.9 months in February to 4.9 in September (normal), to a very low 3.6 months of inventory in November.  Fairfax, Novato and Greenbrae have been extremely active markets while sales in upper end towns like Belvedere and Ross remain sluggish.  I expect to see a substantial increase in months of inventory in the spring in all price points with strong sales activity in the lower price points continuing while the upper end market will remain slow with plenty of options for buyers.

The properties that will sell in all price points have realistic sellers who understand that this is no longer the market we had in 2005.    Sounds like a simple concept except we continue to see unrealistic sellers have their homes sit on the market.  Prices have declined substantially in some areas.  Sellers who pay close attention to current (not past) values in their neighborhood will benefit.

Belvedere Home Sales 2009

Posted on December 21, 2009 by Ginger Wilcox

Today is a good day to look at Belvedere real estate stats in celebration of Belvedere’s birthday. In 1965, the average home price in Belvedere was approximately $58,000. In 2009, 23 Belvedere homes sold with an average sale price of $3,166,957 for the year.  In November of 2009, the median home price was down 24.4% over the same time period five years before, however; monthly/weekly sales statistics for the town of Belvedere are not necessarily reflective of the true Belvedere real estate market because of the very small number of homes sold each month.  Below is a list of all homes sold in Belvedere, California in 2009.

2009 Belvedere Home Sales
250 Bayview Ave, Sales Price $855,000
121 Bayview Ave, Sales Price $950,000
14 Edgewater Rd, Sales Price $1,780,000
40 Bayview Ave, Sales Price $1,980,000
95 W Shore Rd Sales Price $2,125,000
10 Windward Rd Sales Price $2,200,000
331 San Rafael Ave, Sales Price $2,375,000
30 Eucalyptus Rd, Sales Price $2,505,000
14 Eucalyptus Rd, Sales Price $2,550,000
76 Lagoon Rd Sales Price $2,580,000
310 Beach Rd, Sales Price $2,625,000
2 Eucalyptus Rd, Sales Price $2,640,000
3 Leeward Rd, Sales Price $2,950,000
5 Blanding Ln, Sales Price $3,000,000
3 West Shore Rd, Sales Price $3,200,000
33 Peninsula Rd, Sales Price $3,225,000
1 Madrona Ave Sales Price $4,100,000
10 Crest Rd, Sales Price $4,350,000
30 Peninsula Rd, Sales Price $4,900,000
16 Edgewater Rd, Sales Price $5,100,000
429 Golden Gate Ave, Sales Price $5,200,000
450 Belvedere Ave Sales Price $5,400,000
456 Belvedere Ave Sales Price $6,250,000

Marin Real Estate Market Snapshot November 2009

Posted on December 9, 2009 by Ginger Wilcox

marin-real-estate-market-snapshotNovember 2009 was a blockbuster month for Marin real estate compared to the same time period in 2008.  In 2008, the Marin real estate market came to a virtual stand still and remained stagnant until small movements in the market began in March.

October was the best month for home sales in Marin this year.  We saw a 6% decline in sales last month over October.  This appears to be a normal seasonal slow down, with numbers very strong over November of 2008.

Marin Countywide Real Estate Statistics for November 2009

Marin Homes For sale
631 compared to 719 in 2008
-12.2% change

Marin Homes Sold
160 compared to 87 in 2008
+83.9%

Marin Homes Pending
177 compared to 86 in 2008
+105.8%

New Listings In Marin -142
Months of Inventory based on closed sales- 3.9
Average days on market– 92
Median price- 714

Pondering a short sale in Marin?

Posted on November 19, 2009 by Ginger Wilcox

In today’s real estate market, many potential Marin homeowners are asking about the short sale.  If you bought at the peak of the market in 2004/205, there is a good chance you may be underwater on your home.  If you don’t plan on moving any time soon, then it is probably not an issue.  Unfortunately, some homeowners get into trouble if they lose a job, had an interest only type of loan that is suddenly resetting or they have to make a sudden or unexpected move.

Occasionally, I hear homeowners say “Ahh, I don’t care, I will just do a short sell.”  Like you just call up the bank and they hand out the short sell coupon.  As many agents and homeowners can tell you,  the short sale process can be very long, difficult and sometimes flat out doesn’t work.  Ted Mackel, a colleague of mine in Simi Valley, California wrote a fantastic article titled “what is a short sale & can I sell my home?”

If you are considering a short sale in Marin, it is definitely worth a read and applicable to our market as well.  Interested in Marin market data? Sign up to receive very detailed real-time market reports in your email. Learn about Marin County price trends, supply and demand, leading indicators and more.  Download a sample report.

Houselogic launched as a resource for homeowners

Posted on November 18, 2009 by Ginger Wilcox

houselogic

Last week, the National Association of REALTORS (NAR) launched a new website for homeowners called Houselogic.com.  The site provides homeowners free information and tools to help them make decisions about their homes.  It is filled with information and advice on various aspects of home maintenance and home improvement, tax incentives, finance & insurance, news about real estate and home ownership and more.  The information seems to be solid and helpful and will be a great resource for homeowners.

NAR is obviously a huge champion for legislation relating to homeownership.  They state on their site, “NAR has been a champion of homeownership rights and opportunities for more than a century. Helping consumers become more informed, responsible homeowners is important to the stability and value of the housing market – and your overall enjoyment of your home. From time to time, NAR may ask you to partner on issues or legislation that may impact you as a homeowner.  It’s up to you whether to participate in these causes.”

I have to admit, I often cringe when I think of lobbyists but the NAR truly does work hard to help the homeowner and this resource seems to be a great one.

California Real Estate/Economic Forecasts

Posted on by Ginger Wilcox

In this video, California Association of REALTORS economist Leslie Appleton Young speaks to agents but it is good information for everyone.  A couple of takeaways:

  • Median home price in California has plummeted because of foreclosures.
  • The California real estate market bottomed in 2007.  Sales have increased dramatically in the last two years.
  • The dollar volume of sales will have bottomed this year.  It will be flat in 2010.
  • Statewide numbers aren’t as important as local data (Follow my Marin market statistics!)
  • If the government does not put more policies in place to put people to work and fuel job growth, the recession will go on for quite some time.

If you are unable to see the video, please click here

Interested in Marin market data? Sign up to receive very detailed real-time market reports in your email. Learn about Marin County price trends, supply and demand, leading indicators and more.  Download a sample report.

Say it isn’t so! Default notices rising in Marin?

Posted on November 11, 2009 by Ginger Wilcox

If you read the San Francisco Chronicle or sfgate.com, you might have come across a very noticeable article (at least noticeable if you are buying, selling, or interested in Marin County real estate!)  The article even got picked up by a national blog – Calculated Risk – which is widely read by Wall Streeters and investors.

Mortgage distress is rising in affluent areas around the Bay Area, according to a Chronicle analysis of foreclosure notices.

Not very positive, especially when the article mentions Greenbrae and other “high end” zip codes in the Bay Area.  Well, here’s what I’m seeing locally:
greenbrae-real-estate-market-stats

So far, so good this Fall.  Asking prices have remained steady and are slightly above price levels from 2006.  Certainly not where we were in 2007, but these seem to be holding well.

What about the number of Greenbrae homes available for sale (a.k.a “inventory”):
greenbrae-real-estate-market-inventory

Definitely rising….

So yes, markets like Greenbrae are showing trends the don’t exactly jive – you’d expect prices to fall a little with the increased number of homes of the market.

October has been the busiest month in Marin all year for sales, but we are also seeing a buzz in the general market.  Open houses are busier, even my web traffic has been up this month.

It’s never a perfect science but getting in to the details is important.  Real estate is local and you can’t believe everything you read in the newspapers.

Courtesy of Altos Research

Home buyer tax credit extended

Posted on November 6, 2009 by Ginger Wilcox

President Obama has just signed the home buyer tax credit bill.  The tax credit will be extended through April 30, 2010, with a 60-day extension if a contract is in place prior to the deadline.  First-time home buyers will continue to receive a tax credit of up to $8,000, while existing homeowners will receive a credit of up to $6,500.  Existing homeowners will be eligible for the $6,500 if they have lived in their current residences for at least five years.

The bill also increases the qualifying income limits to  $125,000 for single tax filers and $225,000 for joint filers.  The purchase price of the home is capped at $800,000.

Taxpayers will also be able to claim the credit on home purchases completed in 2010 on their 2009 income tax returns. Home buyers do not have to repay the credit as long as the home remains their primary residence for 36 months after purchase.  This requirement will be waived for active duty military personnel who move due to a military order.

So, what does this mean for Marin? This extension will definitely aid the lower tier of the Marin real estate market.  Communities like Novato, parts of San Rafael, Fairfax and San Anselmo will benefit most from the credit.  Southern Marin cities will not see much of a direct benefit because of the $800,000 purchase price cap but the overall Marin real estate market should benefit from the credit.

Mill Valley, CA Real Estate Market Conditions (October 9, 2009)

Posted on October 13, 2009 by Ginger Wilcox
90-day stats for Single Family properties in
MILL VALLEY, CA as of October 9, 2009
Median List Price $1,302,500 Average List Price $1,595,483
Total Inventory 149 Price per Square Foot $616
Average Home Size 2,282 Median Lot Size 9,550
Average # Beds 3.52 Average # Baths 2.77
Homes Absorbed 10 Newly Listed 9
Days on Market 131 Average Age 50

Median Price for homes in MILL VALLEY, CA All ZIP Codes

Median Price for homes in MILL VALLEY, CA All ZIP Codes as of October 9, 2009 is $1,302,500
Average Days on Market for homes in MILL VALLEY, CA All ZIP Codes

Average Days on Market for homes in MILL VALLEY, CA All ZIP Codes as of October 9, 2009 is 131

Tiburon, CA Real Estate Market Conditions (October 9, 2009)

Posted on by Ginger Wilcox
90-day stats for Single Family properties in
TIBURON, CA as of October 9, 2009
Median List Price $2,729,231 Average List Price $3,876,647
Total Inventory 83 Price per Square Foot $838
Average Home Size 3,362 Median Lot Size 17,270
Average # Beds 4.04 Average # Baths 3.78
Homes Absorbed 4 Newly Listed 4
Days on Market 177 Average Age 37

Median Price for homes in TIBURON, CA All ZIP Codes

Median Price for homes in TIBURON, CA All ZIP Codes as of October 9, 2009 is $2,729,231
Average Days on Market for homes in TIBURON, CA All ZIP Codes

Average Days on Market for homes in TIBURON, CA All ZIP Codes as of October 9, 2009 is 177